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Bitcoin, BTC/USD, Market Sentiment, Inflation, Technical Outlook – Talking Points
- Economic recession is worried about exacerbating risk aversion, Bitcoin collapse
- U.S. stocks are backward at the end of the quarter
- BTC / USD breakthrough key support, price decline
Friday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook
Bitcoin prices fell overnight, along with risk assets including stocks and other cryptocurrencies, as Wall Street traders pressed the sell button on renewed recession fears. BTC/USD fell more than 6% during the New York session and broke the 20,000 and 19,000 levels. The high-beta Nasdaq 100 (NDX) fell 1.33% in a volatile second quarter. End-of-quarter rebalancing, the period during which funds review their portfolio allocations, may result in some exposure to risky assets. Asian stocks outperformed U.S. stocks, with the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and China 300 rising in June.
U.S. Treasury yields were bought after U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data beat expectations. The Fed’s preferred core reading fell to 4.7% y/y in May from 4.9% in April. This suggests that inflation may have peaked, as it has now fallen for three consecutive months. The data could be encouraging for central banks, but the Fed is likely to stick with its July rate hike.
A key report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta showed that U.S. second-quarter GDP growth was revised down to -1.0% from 0.3%. Slower U.S. economic growth is increasingly likely. Meanwhile, China showed signs of a rebound in economic activity on Wednesday as coronavirus restrictions eased. The National Bureau of Statistics’ Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 54.1 from 48.4 in June, shifting sharply from contraction to expansion.
The Ai Group’s Australian manufacturing index rose to 54 this morning from 52.4 in May. The rise is an encouraging data point for the Australian economy amid growing economic uncertainty. New Zealand’s building permits fell 0.5% in May, compared with -8.6% in April. NZD/USD and AUD/USD were both bought overnight, helped by the greenback’s decline on lower U.S. Treasury yields.
Notable Events for June 30:
- South Korea -Exit (June)
- South Korea – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
- India – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
- India -Trade difference (June)
BTC/USD Technical Forecast
Bitcoin ended June down 41.2%, its worst monthly performance on record. The overnight decline saw key psychological levels of 20,000 and 19,000 broken, with prices near the June low of 17592.78. Falling will make the price fall to the lowest level since November 2020. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below the 30 level, suggesting extreme weakness could continue into July.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
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