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Bitcoin, BTC/USD, FOMC, Australian Jobs, China, Technical Outlook – TALKING POINTS
- Asia-Pacific markets likely to fall after sentiment in Europe and America deteriorates
- Aussie falls on China concerns and weak iron ore prices after Australian jobs data
- BTC/USD looks poised for more losses as momentum oscillator weakens
Thursday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook
Asia-Pacific markets are likely to trade lower after sentiment in Europe and the US deteriorated overnight. UK consumer prices rose 10.1% year-on-year in July, beating expectations and reaching the highest level since the early 1980s. European gas prices remain near record highs, raising the prospect of a deep recession in the euro zone. FOMC minutes confirmed dovish expectations, although the Fed remains poised for further tightening as it reviews its earlier monetary policy moves. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) fell 1.21%.
Norsk Hydro has announced the closure of its aluminium plant in Slovakia, citing high energy prices. Like many in Germany, the system is already running at a lower capacity. Shanghai aluminum prices closed slightly higher on Wednesday. WTI and Brent were higher at the close in New York after a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. oil inventories dented strength. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported 7 million.
Chinese stocks could lead to losses across the Asia-Pacific region today after a disappointing earnings report from Chinese tech giant Tencent. The U.S.-listed Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.24 percent in New York. Investors are increasingly pessimistic about China, despite some signs that policymakers may soon ramp up monetary and fiscal support. The 1-year and 5-year lending rates will be updated next week, and traders expect a 10 basis point cut in the LPR.
The New Zealand dollar fell about 1% against the dollar, reversing gains following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Australian dollar was also lower, weighed down by subdued market sentiment and weak iron ore prices. However, Australia’s July jobs data could revive the currency. Analysts expect 25,000 new jobs to be added in July, with the unemployment rate and participation rate flat. The rose print could support prices given the recent weakness in the Australian dollar. China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) data is expected to be released before the weekend.
Notable Events for August 18:
Japan – 20-Year JGB Auction
China – FDI (YTD) YoY (July)
BTC/USD Technical Outlook
BTC/USD fell to support after the bulls failed to clear the 100-day simple moving average (dark blue line) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Prices have been almost flat since the beginning of August, but a weakening of the BTC momentum oscillator suggests that prices may fall.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is poised to form a bearish crossover below its centerline, while the MACD has broken below its signal line. A break below the support level will challenge the 20-day SMA (light blue line) and could pull the price towards the important psychological level of 1800.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
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