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Bitcoin, BTC/USD, Market Sentiment, Retail Sales, Technical Outlook – Talking Points
- Bitcoin falls along with U.S. stocks as sentiment sours
- Retail sales data from Japan and Australia to assess growth in Asia Pacific
- BTC/USD nears key support test as bears enter third day
Wednesday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook
Traders in the Asia-Pacific region faced a risk-off mood after a choppy fall in New York sent U.S. stock indexes lower. Tech stocks underperformed the broader market, with the high-beta Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closing down 3.09%, bringing the index’s overall loss for the month to nearly 8% as July looms. However, the Chinese market is expected to end the month higher after the economic powerhouse eased Covid-19 restrictions. Bitcoin prices fell due to risk aversion. Cryptocurrencies could be headed higher as Asian stocks weaken overnight.
Beijing on Tuesday reduced the amount of time international travelers must quarantine, the latest sign that policymakers are preparing to abandon the “zero-coronavirus” policy. Travellers from outside China are now only required to quarantine for one week. The same catch-up effect seen in Western economies, which largely eased restrictions earlier this year and late last year.
Meanwhile, the Group of Seven (G7) nations are trying to hammer out details of the reported cap on Russian oil prices. The move will limit the prices outside companies can pay for Russian oil. The American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels in the week to June 24, beating analysts’ expectations for a 100,000-barrel draw. The EIA report is expected tonight after a two-week outage due to technical problems with the agency’s servers.
Japan’s May retail sales report is released today. Analysts expected a 4.0% year-over-year increase, according to a Bloomberg survey. That would be a sharp improvement from April’s 2.9% year-on-year gain, and a better-than-expected surprise could help the yen strengthen. Australia’s preliminary retail sales report for May will follow Japanese data. The 0.4% gain is expected to outpace the previous 0.9% gain.
Notable Events for June 29:
- Japan – Consumer Confidence Index (June)
- Singapore – Export prices (May)
- South Korea – Business Confidence Index (June)
BTC/USD Technical Forecast
Bitcoin prices fell for the third day in a row, with prices near the key 20,000 level. A break below psychological support could see bears intensify and could propel prices to a test of the June swing low set earlier this month. Alternatively, a rally aims to reverse losses from earlier in the week, with the falling 20-day simple moving average (SMA) also a potential target.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
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